1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	336552	Mystic Paths	Current	133	7.06	5.61	1.00
			Estimated	400	7.26	5.82	1.78

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In the deduction game Mystic Paths, players are challenged to navigate paths through a labyrinth called the Eternal Forest. Each player's path is unique — and only you know the way. However, you cannot traverse the forest alone. Your teammates are needed to open the sealed portals along each step. Give clever clues, hope your teammates can read your mind, and complete your journey! To complete the journey, each player takes a turn providing clues about which portal is their next step. Each step can have up to five different portals, but only one is the correct one, so players give clues that relate (hopefully) to the correct next step. The challenge is that the only clues available are cards that have been dealt, so sometimes the clues may not relate to the next portal of a journey, which means you have to get creative. This is where you need to try to read the minds of your teammates. For example, the next portal on your journey could be the word "anteater", and your clues are limited to cards you are dealt, like scary, or tall, or handsome. Which would you choose as your clue? The game takes place in five rounds. Beat the game by having everyone complete their own journey before the five rounds are over. —description from publisher Microbadges:

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/336552

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Mystic Paths? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Mystic Paths. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Mystic Paths. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	336552	Mystic Paths	1.00	5.61	7.06	1.78	133
1	1992	6541	Articulate!	0.89	5.88	6.54	1.27	1,307
2	2020	302734	Master Word	0.89	5.82	6.97	1.56	512
3	1992	5001	Telepaths	0.89	5.54	6.19	1.33	125
4	2001	7443	Electronic Scattergories Platinum Edition	0.88	5.50	5.67	1.00	44
5	2018	247008	Pun Intended	0.88	5.50	5.64	1.33	45
6	2000	5494	Talkin' Tango	0.88	5.53	6.31	1.14	85
7	2019	285253	Fiesta de los Muertos	0.88	5.96	7.23	1.06	665
8	2010	92177	Articulate! Your Life	0.87	5.53	6.11	1.00	105
9	2011	116849	Rimtik	0.86	5.51	6.17	2.33	41
10	2019	272889	Pictionary Air	0.86	5.55	5.99	1.00	227
11	1989	1274	Cue Me!	0.85	5.51	6.21	2.33	35
12	2009	62709	Funglish	0.85	5.54	5.74	1.25	393
13	2009	40990	Word on the Street	0.84	6.14	6.61	1.38	2,431
14	2020	300753	Cross Clues	0.84	6.31	7.40	1.05	1,505
15	2007	32149	Word Blur	0.84	5.60	6.81	1.25	151
16	2016	203195	Keep Cool	0.84	5.54	6.74	2.00	59
17	2016	203411	Word Slam	0.84	6.02	6.96	1.11	986
18	1991	4570	Wordsters	0.83	5.51	5.92	1.33	67
19	1985	4561	Carrera de Mente	0.83	5.49	5.24	1.00	67
20	1991	1923	MindTrap	0.83	5.12	4.78	1.96	1,810
21	2003	8618	This Vs That	0.83	5.49	4.94	1.50	48
22	1991	11573	Celebrity Taboo	0.83	5.49	5.38	1.50	149
23	1991	14151	Quickword: The Ultimate Word Game	0.82	5.52	6.11	2.14	56
24	1990	1866	Brainstorm	0.82	5.52	5.73	1.62	195
25	2001	5430	Best of TriBond	0.82	5.48	5.39	1.25	158

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Mystic Paths while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	336552	Mystic Paths	5.61	1.00	5.61	7.06	1.78	133
1	2018	254640	Just One	6.02	0.81	7.40	7.62	1.05	17,482
2	2020	300753	Cross Clues	5.32	0.84	6.31	7.40	1.05	1,505
3	2019	275467	Letter Jam	5.25	0.79	6.67	7.27	1.98	3,450
4	1992	6541	Articulate!	5.23	0.89	5.88	6.54	1.27	1,307
5	2019	285253	Fiesta de los Muertos	5.22	0.88	5.96	7.23	1.06	665
6	2018	245422	Werewords Deluxe Edition	5.18	0.81	6.41	7.57	1.22	1,384
7	2009	40990	Word on the Street	5.18	0.84	6.14	6.61	1.38	2,431
8	2020	302734	Master Word	5.15	0.89	5.82	6.97	1.56	512
9	2016	203411	Word Slam	5.05	0.84	6.02	6.96	1.11	986
10	2017	219215	Werewords	4.99	0.75	6.64	7.14	1.16	4,133
11	1989	1111	Taboo	4.95	0.81	6.13	6.29	1.21	11,415
12	1992	5001	Telepaths	4.90	0.89	5.54	6.19	1.33	125
13	2001	7443	Electronic Scattergories Platinum Edition	4.87	0.88	5.50	5.67	1.00	44
14	2017	215371	CrossTalk	4.86	0.81	5.99	6.94	1.18	874
15	2000	5494	Talkin' Tango	4.85	0.88	5.53	6.31	1.14	85
16	2018	247008	Pun Intended	4.85	0.88	5.50	5.64	1.33	45
17	2010	92177	Articulate! Your Life	4.83	0.87	5.53	6.11	1.00	105
18	2018	257527	Trapwords	4.79	0.76	6.31	6.98	1.41	2,205
19	2018	258309	First Contact	4.77	0.79	6.05	7.03	2.08	990
20	2019	272889	Pictionary Air	4.76	0.86	5.55	5.99	1.00	227
21	2011	116849	Rimtik	4.73	0.86	5.51	6.17	2.33	41
22	2007	32149	Word Blur	4.71	0.84	5.60	6.81	1.25	151
23	1989	1274	Cue Me!	4.69	0.85	5.51	6.21	2.33	35
24	2009	62709	Funglish	4.68	0.85	5.54	5.74	1.25	393
25	2020	312786	Poetry for Neanderthals	4.65	0.81	5.77	6.74	1.08	577

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	336552	Mystic Paths	R&R Games	Brian Leet	Brandon Lewis	Maze		Communication Limits
				Kevin Worden	William O'Brien	Party Game		Cooperative Game
					Stephani Stacy	Word Game		Deduction
								Targeted Clues
								Team-Based Game

Individual Game Analysis